CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-05-10T14:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-05-10T14:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20145/-1
CME Note: Visible in the SE and S of SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 and the far south of STEREO A COR2. Associated with an X1.5 flare from AR 3006 starting at 2022-05-10T13:50Z and a subsequent EUV wave seen in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195. The associated eruption is characterized by dimming best seen in SDO AIA 193. It is also seen in STEREO A EUVI 195. It overlaps with the CME first visible in the southeast of SOHO LASCO C2 at 2022-05-10T15:12Z, causing some confusion in its analysis, as there are two simultaneous fronts seen in the first few images of LASCO C2 but only one front clearly seen in COR2A and C3. UPDATE (2022-05-24T) from LASSOS Team: Signature indicating possible interaction of this CME and SIR starting after ~2022-05-14T10:00Z. This interaction makes shock less clear. The SIR clears the region of material that might otherwise propagate the shock. The ICME possibly started before the SIR start - at the end of 2022-05-13 there is a smooth B-field signature indicative of an ICME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-05-13T21:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-05-13T23:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note: Lead Time: 55.75 hour(s)
Difference: -2.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2022-05-11T13:15Z
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